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有陰謀論認為,今年11月大選,民主黨肯定還會搞事情,把川普的優勢打掉,所以美國經濟跟股市還會有一輪急劇的探底。巴菲特作為民主黨的金主之一,也會料到未來半年兩黨不擇手段繼續撕是必然發生的事,最壞的時候可能還在後面。

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巴菲特賣光4大航空持股

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巴菲特3月才加碼達美航空,
不解對航空業的看法怎會如此反覆。
這次疫情航空業屬跌深股,
之後反彈幅度應不小。

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Berkshire's cash pile isn't huge in worst-case scenario, Buffett says
May 02, 2020 7:10 PM ETBerkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B)54 Comments
Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE:BRK.B) (NYSE:BRK.A) cash position "isn't all that huge when you think about worst-case possibilities," Warren Buffett said during the annual meeting's question and answer section.
"We don't prepare ourselves for a single problem, we prepare ourselves for problems that sometimes create their own momentum."
The conglomerate had $137B of cash and Treasury bills on its balance sheet as of March 31, 2020.
Asked why he hasn't invested in any companies during the pandemic crisis like the company did during the financial crisis, Buffett said "we haven't seen anything attractive."
Furthermore, funding was a lot easier to get this time around.
"The Federal Reserve did the right thing and very promptly," Buffett said. "Companies got the chance to finance in huge ways in the last five weeks."
"Berkshire actually raised more money" recently,  although it didn't need it, he added.
Update at 7:12 PM: Regarding how Berkshire's operating companies are handling the pandemic environment, "Very few of our businesses have required funds," said Vice Chairman Greg Abel, who heads all operating businesses except for insurance.
Berkshire has advanced funds to the few of its businesses that did need them, he said.
7:22 PM: Some "very small" businesses that Berkshire owns may close as a result of the coronavirus-fueled downturn, Buffett said, declining to specify what kind of businesses might close.
7:28 PM: Two of three of Precision Castparts divisions are being hurt by the coronavirus lockdowns,  Abel said. "The defense part remains very sound and strong."
Meanwhile, the Precision Castparts business dealing with large body aircraft continues to adjust and keep in close communication with Boeing, he said.
7:32 PM: As for its Geico insurance unit, "the delay in payments has obviously increased" due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Buffett said. "That will be a significant cost to us."
For the insurance operations in general, "the amount of litigation is going to be huge. In the auto insurance field, which is our number one field, that's more definable," Buffett said.
The company doesn't have a big presence in commercial multiple peril insurance that might involve business interruption coverage. "We'll have claims, litigation that won't be as much as for other companies," he said.
7:44 PM: Berkshire operating companies haven't participated in any of the federal rescue programs, Abel said.
"When it comes to PPP loans, we're not aware of any of our businesses applying for them," he said.
7:55 PM: Arguing against the idea that the age of passive investing through index funds is over,  Buffett said, "I haven't changed my will, which directs my widow to have 90%" of assets in index funds.
8:16 PM: In relation to oil prices and its investment in Occidental (NYSE:OXY), "When you buy oil, you're betting on oil prices and with oil prices there's risk," Buffett said. "If this [oil] price stays where it is, there will be a lot of bad debts and loans."
"It will affect the banking industry to some degree."
8:26 PM: This current downturn may be testing the ability for the world to continue to operate with negative interest rates, he said.
8:34 PM: Buffett sees no chance of the U.S. defaulting  on its bonds. "If you print bonds in your own currency, things can happen to your currency, but you don't default."
9:10 PM: "The market system is marvelous in may respects but it need government... it's creative destruction" and for those who are destroyed, "it can be very brutal," Buffett said.
While he wouldn't come up with a new system, "I certainly don't want unfettered capitalism."
9:14 PM: Meeting ends.

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The conglomerate had $137B. 帳面現金1370億美金子彈.
賣掉所有航空股.巴神在想甚麼?
我還是繼續保有UAL,其他交給時間.

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從前巴菲特曾經說過,航空公司是一個很燒錢的產業,每年光是在人事成本,飛機維修,汰換舊機或是航點拓展都需要花費大筆金錢,所以他不愛航空股.但去年祂卻出手買了幾家大型航空公司.
我看不懂航空公司也看不懂遊輪產業是否會跟以前一樣,這超出我能力圈範圍了,但是我知道信用擴張是必然的趨勢,所以這波災跟隨老師,Curry大買金融,租賃公司,有好的金融股我還是會持續購買.

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有一點老巴提到說買S&P500......
老巴是否有到論壇看到MIKE在4/14說買ETF S&P500 and NASDAQ...
這才是神准....

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去年年底(2019年Q4)巴老就已經買進了
SPY跟VOO兩檔追蹤標普500的ETF了,
巴老的動作越來越看不懂,
二月加碼航空股,五月全賣出,
很難懂在想甚麼,還是專注在自己選擇比較好

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完全跟老巴的操作方式
套牢了,老巴是不會來救你...
一直很欽佩Mike大雖然推崇巴菲特價值投資,但卻未一昧跟著老巴操作
反而推陳出新,並具體化價值投資!

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買錯套牢的話,老巴最近有教一招,
直接賣掉,認錯不要懷疑

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在GDP低點出清航空股,
很有可能賣在低價區。
GDP低點應提高持股比重才是,
仍有股價便宜或相對便宜的好公司可入手,
老巴卻說目前沒有值得投資的公司。

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買錯套牢的話,老巴最近有教一招,
直接賣掉,認錯不要懷疑
raymondkuo 發表於 2020-5-5 20:19

這個理解可能不太精確
老巴很多東西都被套
例如TEVA
他有說明為什麼賣航空股
我不認同他賣航空股
但是他顯然有比被套更多的原因

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如果沒有回到以往榮景的機會,
也無法維持獲利,
賣掉是最好選擇,時間就是金錢,
以往從不買航空股,買進再加碼,最後出清,
或許他是在昭告天下,
每個人都會犯錯,一錯再錯要怎麼處理,
不要浪費時間跟金錢在錯的股票上

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如果沒有回到以往榮景的機會,
也無法維持獲利,
賣掉是最好選擇,時間就是金錢,
以往從不買航空股,買進 ...
raymondkuo 發表於 2020-5-6 12:09



找批好的馬,跑的比一般的馬快,同樣的時間。好的馬還是比一般馬優秀。貴的還是貴,淑的還是淑。沒變質繼續讓牠跑吧!

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如何找到跑得比一般快的馬?

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1370億美金子彈,被FED搞亂.

股東上周末最想問的問題是,在新冠肺炎疫情封鎖經濟、企業急尋資金之際,握有創紀錄1,370億美元現金的巴菲特為什麼不出手?巴菲特對此表示,這次危機不一樣。

巴菲特在年度股東會上說:「我們什麼都沒做,因為沒有有吸引力的標的。」2008年和2009年的交易不是為了「向全世界張揚的」。「顯然是明智的交易,當年市況並無太大競爭。」

彭博指出,巴菲特靠他的威望,讓他在2008年金融危機期間扮演最後放貸者的角色,買進多家家喻戶曉的股票,每年光靠股利就享有10%回報。不過,今年當疫情和封鎖措施重創3月股市,甚至當債市開始出現流動性緊縮之際,聯準會(Fed)比巴菲特搶先一步,展開空前的緊急措施。

巴菲特在周六股東會如此說:「就在Fed行動之際,我們開始接到電話。來電的並非有吸引力的洽詢,但確不斷有來電。而在Fed行動之後,不少來電的公司已能在公開市場取得資金,老實說給了我們不會給的條件。」

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這種馬都很有名,也沒幾隻。很妙的是不用照顧也是這麽強壯優秀!「如果你發現自己身處在一艘不斷漏水的船上,與其花精力去補破洞,不如多花點精神想辦法換另一艘船。by 巴菲特」

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這種馬都很有名,也沒幾隻。...
Acc_Fanp 發表於 2020-5-6 13:07
舉例

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舉例
mikeon88 發表於 2020-5-6 13:15
FAAMG

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如何知道FAAMG未來仍會跑得快?

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