Curry

回復  Curry
可以請教一下PE42.15  Harry's 的淨利從何得知?
chris9895 發表於 2019-7-6 01:09

• 1370/(325*0.1)=42.15
• EPC margin歷年約13~15%，但Harry's僅有10%

• Sales generated by Harry's are seen at $325 million in 2019, for a 4.2 times sales multiple.
• Harry's margins come in around 10% or so, far below margins reported by Edgewell.
• Edgewell has reached a deal to acquire Harry's in a $1.37 billion deal. No fixed share ratio has been announced other than that 79% of the deal will be paid for in cash and the remainder 21% in stock. This works down to $1.085 billion in cash and $285 million in Edgewell's stock, equivalent to 6.9 million shares based on a recent VWAP.
• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4266428-edgewell-personal-care-harrys-become-hero-troubled-kid

chris9895

回復 9# Curry

恩  謝Curry兄    原來舊討論區已有過討論   但奇怪我在舊網頁搜尋EPC卻無結果    新版分類頁上也未見

可以請教一下PE42.15  Harry's 的淨利從何得知?

和列出合併前後負債/資產比之用意?


另關於買貴了的原因  看到下圖我猜是為了讓私募賺一筆   不然私募不會輕易賣掉養了那麼久  快肥的羊

Curry

EPC舊討論區#1_http://mikeon88.freebbs.tw/viewthread.php?tid=48156&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid115566
EPC MoneyDj介紹_https://money.moneydj.com/us/basic/basic0001/EPC

Curry

小弟EPC 07/31/2018買在$53.42，現在賠約50%，既然已確定併購，不管是否考慮異常利益&少數淨利(#10)，仍有估值，只是賺多賺少，且併購Harry's也是至少是正向的，EPC原本就是好公司，但這幾年營收衰退，併購增加產品組合及銷售方式(Harry's的DTC，direct to customer平台)應是正向，所以我會續抱！買股票總會遇到類似狀況…，真的要靜下心來評估。

Curry

Curry

• 計算了一下EPC是以PER42.15併購Harry's，Harry's真的是買貴了...，合併負債比(併購前後變化)如下

chris9895

併購的消息是今年五月才開始, 但的確也應是下跌的原因之一

另從2014年高點跌了好幾年應是因為業績和淨利下滑之緣故

至於併購的其他原因, 業界預期未來男性護理(刮毛 鬍泡 護膚 乳液等)是一個還有成長空間的領域

像UL也在2016年併購了U.S.-based Dollar Shave Club

另外我覺得比較特別的是DTC的模式  由製造業直接面對消費者, 略過了經銷商和通路. 主要屬數位的方式, 直接在自家的網站上讓消費者訂購/訂閱, 可以省掉上架, rebate 等費用(少說也會有5-8%)

至於花那麼多錢買Harry's, 79% cash 21% stock, 現金減少和借款增加, 另因21%使股本膨脹
若Harry's 併進來獲利未超過21%造成的股本膨脹, ROE會因此下降, 反之上升

另外一個重點就是EPC會apply這個DTC模式到自家產品, 期待可以提升公司整個portfolio的業績(或減少上述的費用)

上述的一些對於未來的前景, 會不會有市場或成功屬於未知

但考慮公司的主要產品刮刀屬寡斷市場(台灣應該和吉列是雙寡頭壟斷), 需求又是一直會有(雖然我自己都用超過建議時間才換刀頭, 因覺得不便宜, 但是又怕用太久會生鏽, 會破傷風), 且男女通吃

應該算是對產品有信心吧, 這麼多年了, 還是大多看到這幾個牌子在架上
防曬乳品牌是非常多, 但對banana boat就是都會有印象
衛生棉的話我比較難去評論,他好像是塞入式的, 有聽過愛運動的女性友人有談論過.....囧(不是跟我  我只是隔牆有耳)
濕紙巾我們家還算愛用, 雖然台灣好像沒看到EPC那個牌子的

我自己用同款的刀片應該有超過7-8年-->屬不變 (中間只有試過一次吉列的因馬上刮破皮膚就再也不用了, EPC的相比有多一種防止刮傷的設計)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/09/ ... 37-billion-nyt.html

Curry

• EPC最近會跌那麼多主要是因為併購後債務增加、併購金額高(EPC近期市值1.82B，歷年營收約2.23B，但Harry's營收才285m，EPC卻花1.37B併購Harry's)、市場怕併購失敗…
• According to the press release issued byEdgewell, the company has struck a deal whereby it will acquire personal carecompany Harry’s in exchange for $1.37 billion. The transaction in question will consist largely of cash,worth $1.085 billion.  The rest of the deal, $285million, will be in the form of Edgewell shares. As aresult of this transaction, the investors in Harry’s will end up owning 11% ofthe combined firm. This is, by all accounts, a significant move by Edgewell,the maker of Schick, when you consider that the company’s entire marketcap, following a 15.8% decline in response to thisdevelopment, is only $1.82 billion.
• Clearly, the market is not too enthusiastic overEdgewell’s decision. To see why, we need only look at the sales of both firms.Last year, revenue generated by Edgewell totaled $2.23 billion. This year, on the other hand (no significant public data is offeredfor last year), Harry’s will generate sales of around $325 million. This is a significant disparity in terms of salesalone, but it becomes clear precisely why this existswhen you consider the performance of both firms over an extended period oftime.
• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4263559-edgewell-betting-farm-harrys

Curry

• 這段講為何EPC想併購Harry's
• Harry's is very strong in brand-building and direct-to-consumer marketing, strengths which Edgewell desperately needs and could combine with its strong technological line-up, intellectual property, and global scale. The emergence of Harry's has been impressive as it was launched only 6 years ago,and it is comforting to see the co-founders joining Edgewell as well, although the question is how long they will remain, of course.
• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4266428-edgewell-personal-care-harrys-become-hero-troubled-kid

jaynd

謝謝推薦！他們家除了香蕉船以外 好像都是排名二的產品

pinkdavid

這幾年只要跟AMZN有關的公司股價都跌到不成人形
mikeon88 發表於 2019-6-28 17:15

AMZN1994年成立，
1997年以每股18美元IPO，
上市前累計虧損達900萬美元，
上市後虧損擴大且持續多年，
當初的早期投資者是基於什麼想法，以何種眼光，
敢投入資金給一家連年虧損的公司?

smile

回復 1# chris9895
謝謝推薦！他們家的香蕉船防曬油滿好用的，已經買過好多次。

mikeon88

這幾年只要跟AMZN有關的公司股價都跌到不成人形