非常感謝，謝謝
ted_17 於 2020年11月28日 下午12:07 寫道：
Hi Michael,
最近有點時間修了一下講稿介紹還有1/21。不知道這樣改行不行?還請Michael看一看。
請見下文，謝謝Michael。
祝好，晚安。
All the best,
Ted Tseng
摘要
Synopsis
百分之百按照我的方法做就能成為有錢人：
1. 選高ROE、配得出現金，不會變的公司
2. 便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣
3. 買超過30支股票，不必照顧也不要停損
Follow my advice, and you too can become a billionaire:
1. Choose companies with high ROE, high dividends and stable business.
2. Buy cheap and hold until the stock becomes overvalued.
3. Maintenance and cutting loss become unnecessary when one holds more than 30 stocks.
想要修練成佛，必須全心全力苦練
初一十五才來廟裡燒香，只能求心安，
摻雜各派邪說將走火入魔。
心有罫礙多唸講稿！
A thorough understanding of my methods will ensure one can invest confidently without losing sleep, even in the midst of a recession or global pandemic.
This transcript of my lectures contains answers to most investment questions.
Dissect and ruminate this guide if confusion or doubts emerge.
上課錄音檔～感謝雜工桑提供
Many thanks to Mr. Handyman for providing lecture recordings
Transcript：
講稿 1/21 歡迎
Lecture 1/21 Welcome
講稿 2/21 知與不知
Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable
講稿 3/21 巴六點
Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria
講稿 4/21 物美價廉
Lecture 4/21 Cheap and fine
講稿 5/21 還原股價
Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price
講稿 6/21 高ROE
Lecture 6/21 High ROE
講稿 7/21 配得出現金
Lecture 7/21 High dividends
講稿 8/21 會計
Lecture 8/21 Accounting
講稿 9/21 地雷股
Lecture 9/21 Landmine stocks
講稿 10/21 他們通通是錯的
Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong
講稿 11/21 不會變的公司
Lectue 11/21 Companies with stable business
講稿 12/21 多種果樹
Lecture 12/21 Diversification
講稿 13/21 IRR
講稿 14/21 現金殖利率的毒害
Lectre 14/21 The poison of cash yield
講稿 15/21 GDP理論
Lecture 15/21 GDP Theorem
講稿 16/21 全世界都成立
Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable
講稿 17/21 不要想太多
Lecture 17/21 Do not think too much
講稿 18/21 玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始
Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy
講稿 19/21 基金太貴，不做代操
Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t let others manage your funds
講稿 20/21 股債不是蹺蹺板
Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw
講稿 21/21 技術分析
Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis
講稿 1/21 歡迎
Lecture 1/21 Welcome
歡迎來上巴菲特班，本班創立於2003年，
為台灣歷史最悠久，學生人數最多的投資課。
Welcome to the Buffett Lecture Series!!
Founded by Michael On in 2003, it is the oldest and the most popular investment course in Taiwan.
2003年開班在想該取什麼名字才會吸引人來上課？
當時剛好看到eBay在拍賣跟巴菲特吃午餐的權利金，
拍得25萬美金，折合台幣800多萬，
我就把這堂課取名叫「一堂價值800萬元的投資課」，
以為是響叮噹的名字，不料效果不彰。
When I was planning the lectures in 2003, how should I name the course to attract people?
I happened to see eBay's charity auction "Lunch with Buffett".
The winning bid was $250,000, equivalent to more than NT$8 million.
So I named the lectures "An investment course worth NT$8 million."
I thought the name was effective, yet the effect remained to be seen.
eBay每年都在拍賣跟巴菲特吃午餐的權利金，
2012年跟2016年同樣創了新高，
金額都是3,456,789美金，折合台幣約1億多元，
所以現在是一堂價值 1 億多元的投資課，現在來上課賺更多！
Every year, eBay auctions "Lunch with Mr. Buffett,” while new records were set in 2012 and 2016. The winning bids were $3,456,789, or approximately NT$100 million.
Therefore, the value of this course is now more than NT$100 million, and join the course now for more bang than ever for your buck!
令人遺憾的是本班的學費在2003年是5,000元，
好不容易2008年因為石油上漲跟著起鬨漲到6,000元，
本以為學費應該跟老巴的權利金一起上漲，卻是很困難。
Since 2003, the tuition for this course had been NT$5,000; in 2008, due to rising oil prices, tuition rose slightly to NT$6,000.
I had hoped that the tuition fee would grow proportionally with the winning bid of the Buffett lunch auction, but it proved difficult to increase.
上完課之後同學才跟我反映，本班的學費其實最便宜，
上別人的課動輒都是上萬元以上，甚至有一堂24萬元課。
我以為本班學費只是個合理價，中間的價格，
說便宜也沒便宜到哪裡去，因為投資是很簡單的一門課，
若動輒都要上萬塊以上的話，
那以前在學校所學更難的課物理化學或微積分不就要上百萬元嗎？
如果上過比我更貴的課，表示被敲了竹槓！
It is usually AFTER the lectures had ended, students would approach me to let me know that my tuition was the cheapest among other investment courses.
The fees for other teachers usually exceed NT$10,000, and some even cost NT$240,000 per lecture. I thought my tuition was reasonable, mid-range.
There are cheap classes, and then there are cheap classes.
Investment is simple, so if one were to pay for more than NT$10,000 to learn investment, then would not the more difficult subjects in school such as physics, mathematics, chemistry or calculus, cost millions? If you have paid for a course more expensive than mine, it means you have been ripped off!
同學問為何還要來上這堂課？
上課之前有人已先看過我的書，為何還要來上這堂課？
因為書上有些東西可能看得不是很懂，
投資時也有許多問題產生，
所以就得來上這堂課。
學投資跟學開車一樣，
光看書等於看一本教練手冊，
單看教練手冊不能學會開車，
接下來就得到教練場聽教練講解。
這堂課就像教練場一樣，
會把所有關於投資的道理跟大家講清楚，
同學只要把上課內容搞清楚就足以應付股市各種狀況。
在上課過程中歡迎隨時舉手發問！
Some students may ask why does one still need this course? Afterall, I did publish two books regarding this subject. This is because some of the ideas and concepts in the book may not be easily construed. One may have questions that were engendered during investing, and I will be here to answer one’s questions when one attends this course.
This lecture is akin to a behind-the-wheels training, one wouldn’t learn how to drive by reading the traffic laws and the car manual. When one masters the course material, one will be more than ready to address challenges and solve problems when engaging the stock market.
Please feel free to raise your hand to ask questions anytime during class!
上完課之後就要開車上路，路上的狀況更複雜，
我們希望仍然跟同學保持聯絡。
在投資上有任何問題歡迎隨時打電話給我，
或者到討論區來一起討論。
這堂課永久免費保固，歡迎再來回鍋，
只要事先寫伊媚兒報名即可。
After completing this course, it's time to drive on the road. The journey is complicated.
I hope to still keep in touch with all of you.
If you have any questions about investment, please feel free to call me or discuss further in the forum.
The course is free to rejoin. Just write an email to sign up in advance.
回鍋是免費的，所謂免費指免學費。
舊生中午要吃便當的話每人2天400元，
不然三不五時來吃便當我就倒閉了。
The so-called free refers to the tuition not the lunch. A returning student needs to pay for one’s lunch, about NT$200 a day. Otherwise I will go broke if returning students only come for the free lunch.
舊生要一本新的講義，70元，
超過一年以上來回鍋才需要新的講義。
The lecture printouts are updated yearly, and would cost NT$70 should one like a new copy.
Updated printouts are needed when one’s last edition is at least a year old.
現在改為線上教學之後回鍋更方便了，
自己到討論區看講稿，隨時隨地複習。
Since the course has been changed to online learning, it is now easier to review and discuss.
Enter the discussion forum to read the lecture transcript and review it anytime, anywhere.
以往每年9月或10月份本班還會召開同學會，
邀請投資有成的同學來分享心得。
同學會場面相當盛大，北中南合計超過1千500人。
台北場在內湖美麗華飯店，有摩天輪大樓的那家飯店，
參加同學須分擔場地費用每人300元。
台中在救國團，每人200元，
高雄是慧雯同學提供的場地，免費。
In the past, the class would also hold reunion parties in September or October every year.
Successful alumni were invited to share their experiences.
Many alumni attended gatherings in northern, central and southern Taiwan, cumulatively more than 15,000 had attended so far.
The Taipei party was held at the Miramar Hotel in Neihu District, which the hotel that has a Ferris wheel.
Attendees will help defray the venue cost, which is NT$300 per person.
The Taichung Party was held in the classroom of the China Youth Corps.
The Kaohsiung Party was held in a free hall provided by Ms. Hueiwen.
巴菲特班同學會 Reunion parties：2007、2008、2009、09高、2010、10中、10高、2011、11中、11高、2012、12中、12高、2013、13中、13高、2014、14中、14高、2015、15中、15高、2016、16中、16高
同學會2017年之後不再舉辦，
大家到討論區見面，等於天天在開同學會。
I have decided to not host anymore reunion parties after 2017.
The reason is that everyone meets in the discussion forum, which is equivalent to holding a reunion party every day.
我出過兩本書，第一本書是「巴菲特選股魔法書」2004年出版，
第二本書「巴菲特選股神功」2008年出版，這是一本漫畫書。
這兩本是不一樣的書，內容70%不同。
跟我買書最便宜，因為作者跟出版社買書可以打6折，
用成本價賣給各位。
以後買書請逕洽書局或出版社購買。
I have written two books, the first is "Warren Buffett’s Magic Book of Stock Selection" published in 2004, and the second book, "Warren Buffett's Skills of Stock Selection" was published in 2008. This is a comic book.
These two books are different, with 70% different content.
Buying a book from me is the cheapest, because the author can get a 40% discount from the publisher. I am providing the books to you at cost price, however, this is no longer the case.
From now on, please purchase books directly from bookstores or publishers.
也就是上這堂課我這一輩子只會賺同學一次學費，
以後跟我買書、參加同學會、來回鍋，都賺不到一毛錢！
This means that I will only earn tuition from you only once. I won’t make a dime from buying books, attending reunion parties and returning to class!
只有這樣才可能教大家學會投資，
看了書之後來上課，平常一起討論，有需要來回鍋。
學投資是一段「練」的過程，
體會出股價的確是如我所講的道理在走，才會照著做，
通常需要經過2次的多空循環才能體會。
第一次碰到多頭天天在漲，以為賺錢真簡單，
第一次碰到空頭天天下跌，又覺得生不如死，
等第二次碰到才發現原來多頭就是這麼一回事，空頭是如此這般。
Only through this way can I teach one how to invest: read books, take courses, discuss together on forums, and return to class when necessary.
Learning to invest is a process of "practicing."
Only when one appreciate the fact that the stock market and the prices are behaving by the principles I have concluded, one would follow my practices to a T.
This usually takes two bull and bear cycles.
The first time one met the bulls, prices were rising day by day, one would think making money is easy.
The first time one met bears, prices were declining day by day, and one would feel that life is no better than death.
It was only after the second encounter would one realize that the bulls are the way it is, and so are the bears.
股市多空跟總體經濟循環是一致的，
景氣循環大概3到5年一個循環，一個循環指一上一下。
The bull market and bear market coincide with the economic cycle.
The economic cycle is about 3 to 5 years, and one cycle includes one up and down fluctuation.
經過2次循環亦即至少5年的時間才能夠體會，
過程中一群志同道合的人共同研究比較容易進入狀況。
After 2 cycles, that is at least 5 years, can one appreciate the stock market.
In this process, it is easier for a group of people with common beliefs to learn together to understand, appreciate and address the situation.
這幾年觀察同學做投資差異很大，本班有一位傑出校友凱元，
他是離投資很遠的人，在鐵工廠上班，一開始錢不多。
2008年5,000多點時來上課，知道那是低點就買滿股票，
重點是他懂得一路抱，抱到高點9,800減碼，
算一算了賺了2倍。
第二次在2012年初自己明白那是低點了，
他選的股票相當不錯，跟我推薦美利達、豐泰的表現都十分亮眼。
In recent years, I have found that the investment behaviors of students are very different.
Kaiyuen, an outstanding alumnus, is a novice investor. He worked in a steel factory and did not have a lot of money at first.
In 2008, he participated in my course when the index was at 5,000 points. He knew this was the lowest point, so he bought many stocks.
The key is that he knows to hold it for a long time, and he reduced his position the index peaked around 9,800. He doubled his investment.
The second time was in early 2012. He realized that this was another low point.
The stocks he chose were quite good, for example, the Merida Bikes (9914.TW) and Feng Tay (9910.TW) that he recommended to me performed well.
凱元2008年來找我時錢不多，
曾跟我說「一個人資產有 1 千萬元就是有錢人，
對他而言是遙不可及的夢。」
最近他說已經離1千萬不遠了，
用現代術語來講，以前千萬元是GPS上的小黑點，
現在則看到車尾燈。
Kaiyuen did not have much money when he came to me in 2008.
He Once told me, "A person with NT$10 million in assets is a rich person and it was an unattainable dream for him."
Recently he said that he was not far from NT$10 million.
To use modern language, ten million NT dollars was used to be a small spot on GPS far far away.
Now he saw the taillights of the car.
有人問我如何衡量一個人是否學會巴菲特神功？
主要看兩點：若買的股票跟我的入圍名單長得很像，
又懂得在股價便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣。
做到這兩點就算學會巴菲特神功。
Someone asked me how to determine whether a person has learned the magic of Buffett?
I check two points: whether the stock he bought is similar to my watch list.
One waits to buy stocks at a cheap price and only sells when the price is high.
Practicing these two points to a T means one has learnt the magic of Buffett.
另外一位同學，凱元的同事，2011年9,000多點來上課，
我警告高點到了應當減碼，
他卻不聽仍去買了遊戲股和太陽能股，
因此賠了錢就對投資喪失信心。
在真的低點來臨，2012年初7,000點，反而不敢買股票。
Another student, a colleague of Kaiyuen, came to class at more than 9,000 points in 2011.
I warned that the market will reach its peak and it is time to sell.
He didn’t listen, but bought video game stocks and solar energy stocks.
The result is he lost money and lost confidence in investment.
When the real low came at 7,000 points in early 2012, he was afraid to buy stocks.
凱元非常熱心一直拉著同事進場，還挑了5檔股票給他參考，
可是同事就是不敢買。
當時凱元連續打了5通電話問我？
我跟他說「GDP低點到了應該進場買股票，」同事不敢買。
我說「把股價圖攤開給他看，當時很多股票未漲，」還是不買。
我說「叫他買個3分之一，反正持股前3分之一亂買亂賣
都沒關係，」同事還是不敢。
最後只好說「把他的頭壓著，叫他一定要買、一定要買」，
後來同事總算買了，可是抱不到三天就賣掉了。
凱元問要如何才能讓他的同事敢買股票而且又願意抱著久？
我雙手一攤「不要理他了，很顯然他跟佛無緣，跟巴菲特無緣！」
Kaiyuen was warm-hearted, urged his colleagues to buy stocks and recommended 5 stocks.
But his colleague dare not buy it.
Kaiyuen called me 5 times.
I told him: "When GDP is low, you should buy stocks." His colleague was afraid of buying.
I said, "Show him the stock price chart. Many stocks hadn't risen at that time," and he didn't buy it.
I said, "Tell him to buy a third. Whether it's buying or selling, the first third doesn't matter," the colleague still dare not.
Finally, I had to say "press his head and tell him to buy, he must buy",
Later, his colleague finally bought it, but sold it in less than three days.
Kaiyuen asked how to make his colleague dare to buy stocks and willing to hold stocks for a long time?
I spread my hands in despair and said, "Forget it, obviously he has missed out Buddha, and missed out Mr. Buffett!"
為何他的同事學巴菲特會失敗？
原因在上完課之後的第一次沒跟著照做，
9,000點我喊減碼，他未照做，未體會出股價的道理。
建議同學上課後的第一次不管願不願意
至少撥一半資金跟我們做做看。
現在來到1萬多點，更貴了，請持股勿超過一半，
跟著做一次，體會出股價道理，就容易學會神功。
Why didn't his colleague learn the Buffett method?
The reason is that he didn't follow my method for the first time after class.
At 9,000, I called to sell. He didn't do it, so he didn't appreciate the principles of the stock price.
I suggest the first time after class, whether one likes it or not,
allocate at least half of one available funds to invest with me.
At the time of writing, the index is at around 10,000 points, which means the stock is even more expensive. Please do not maintain more than half of one’s funds in stock.
Follow me once, and one will understand the principles of stock prices and learn the magic easily.
本堂課會從最基本開始教，不用擔心完全沒概念，
上課過程有聽不懂的地方就舉手，
我即會停下來讓同學聽到懂為止。
只要給我2天，就可以把您變成巴菲特，
讓同學的投資思想跟行為跟巴菲特一樣。
即便是完全一竅不通的人也會玩全世界的股票，
只要給我2天的時間。
This course will start from the basic, don’t worry about being a novice at all.
Raise one’s hand if one doesn’t understand during class, I will explain until one has understood completely.
Give me two days and I will make you a Buffett, with Mr. Buffett’s investment reasoning and behavior.
Even people who don’t know anything can invest globally.
Just give me two days.
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