Curry

• 這段講為何EPC想併購Harry's
• Harry's is very strong in brand-building and direct-to-consumer marketing, strengths which Edgewell desperately needs and could combine with its strong technological line-up, intellectual property, and global scale. The emergence of Harry's has been impressive as it was launched only 6 years ago,and it is comforting to see the co-founders joining Edgewell as well, although the question is how long they will remain, of course.
• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4266428-edgewell-personal-care-harrys-become-hero-troubled-kid

Curry

• EPC最近會跌那麼多主要是因為併購後債務增加、併購金額高(EPC近期市值1.82B，歷年營收約2.23B，但Harry's營收才285m，EPC卻花1.37B併購Harry's)、市場怕併購失敗…
• According to the press release issued byEdgewell, the company has struck a deal whereby it will acquire personal carecompany Harry’s in exchange for $1.37 billion. The transaction in question will consist largely of cash,worth $1.085 billion.  The rest of the deal, $285million, will be in the form of Edgewell shares. As aresult of this transaction, the investors in Harry’s will end up owning 11% ofthe combined firm. This is, by all accounts, a significant move by Edgewell,the maker of Schick, when you consider that the company’s entire marketcap, following a 15.8% decline in response to thisdevelopment, is only $1.82 billion.
• Clearly, the market is not too enthusiastic overEdgewell’s decision. To see why, we need only look at the sales of both firms.Last year, revenue generated by Edgewell totaled $2.23 billion. This year, on the other hand (no significant public data is offeredfor last year), Harry’s will generate sales of around $325 million. This is a significant disparity in terms of salesalone, but it becomes clear precisely why this existswhen you consider the performance of both firms over an extended period oftime.
• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4263559-edgewell-betting-farm-harrys

Curry

• 計算了一下EPC是以PER42.15併購Harry's，Harry's真的是買貴了...，合併負債比(併購前後變化)如下

Curry

Curry

小弟EPC 07/31/2018買在$53.42，現在賠約50%，既然已確定併購，不管是否考慮異常利益&少數淨利(#10)，仍有估值，只是賺多賺少，且併購Harry's也是至少是正向的，EPC原本就是好公司，但這幾年營收衰退，併購增加產品組合及銷售方式(Harry's的DTC，direct to customer平台)應是正向，所以我會續抱！買股票總會遇到類似狀況…，真的要靜下心來評估。

Curry

EPC舊討論區#1_http://mikeon88.freebbs.tw/viewthread.php?tid=48156&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid115566
EPC MoneyDj介紹_https://money.moneydj.com/us/basic/basic0001/EPC

Curry

回復  Curry
可以請教一下PE42.15  Harry's 的淨利從何得知?
chris9895 發表於 2019-7-6 01:09

• 1370/(325*0.1)=42.15
• EPC margin歷年約13~15%，但Harry's僅有10%

• Sales generated by Harry's are seen at $325 million in 2019, for a 4.2 times sales multiple.
• Harry's margins come in around 10% or so, far below margins reported by Edgewell.
• Edgewell has reached a deal to acquire Harry's in a $1.37 billion deal. No fixed share ratio has been announced other than that 79% of the deal will be paid for in cash and the remainder 21% in stock. This works down to $1.085 billion in cash and $285 million in Edgewell's stock, equivalent to 6.9 million shares based on a recent VWAP.
• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4266428-edgewell-personal-care-harrys-become-hero-troubled-kid

Curry

回復  Curry
和列出合併前後負債/資產比之用意?
chris9895 發表於 2019-7-6 01:09

• EPC雖然併購Harry's買貴了，但其實併購後的(負債/資產)比還好(比起UL負債/資產比約70%)，只要EPC的常利能繼續維持下去。

Curry

回復 10# Curry

• 如果考量扣掉"異常利益"，其實併購後ROE跟現在一樣都是13%
• 因併購後淨值增加，但因ROE跟併購前一樣，所以併購後的貴價為$102，比併購前的貴價$97高
• 其實併購後的估值較高，只要常利能維持現況，如併購Harry's能發生綜效當然估值會更高
• 為何股價跌成這樣？因市場僅擔心併購價過高、債務增加、怕併購失敗、怕EPS降低、怕配息減少、怕buyback減少...

Curry

在這種情況下算出來的預期股價和淑貴價是不是應該要除以1.13 ?
chris9895 發表於 2019-7-8 23:56

• 因IRR是8次方的equation，所以算出來的預期股價和淑貴價不能直接除以1.13，要跟盈再表一樣算出各年配息&預期8年後的EPS才能算出淑貴價。
• http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2018/08/1321irr.html

Curry

也在其他收購條件都相同的情形下, 只有因股價是波動的. 若當時股價較低, 使公司要發行更多的新股來買
那麼EPS會變低, PE法的目標價就要調低

IRR法亦然, 因NAV降低, EPS降低,股息和8年後股價都會較低
chris9895 發表於 2019-7-8 23:56

• 簡報是寫"6.9 million shares or $285 million (based on 5-day VWAP prior to signing)"，商方應該還會協調
• 我算出來ROE也是13%，淨值增加，EPS應該會增加

Curry

回復 20# chris9895

• 淑貴價只跟ROE及期初NAV有關
• 併購不一定會讓淨值增加，增加股數才會讓淨值增加，EPC此次併購，79%(1-285/1370)為現金
• 如果併購後NAV增，ROE不變，預期配息率不變，淑貴價當然會增加(如果獲利能維持現況，甚至更好)

Curry

商譽減損時母ROE將下降
mikeon88 發表於 2019-7-11 07:34

應該不一定，商譽減損
會在當季淨利一次提列虧損
但同時淨值也降低
常利不變、淨值減少，ROE應該未必會更差

Curry

商譽是屬於淨值底下的科目，商譽減損淨值自然會減少

Curry

Mike大好不好意思請教一下

• 您在#26提到"商譽減損在損益表的異常利益，經本期損益代入淨值"，如果是這樣淨值應該會降低，常利計算時會排除異常利益，所以常利不變，如此理論上ROE應該會增加，但您在#22也有提到"不過若買得太貴，來年提列商譽減損時母ROE將下降"，兩者似乎有違，小弟一直卡在這邊...
• 因商譽減損不過是會計上的認列，公司獲利仍然不變，商譽減損導致淨值降低，常利又不變，導致ROE增加，如果這樣看好像商譽減損還不錯，但似乎又覺得怪怪的，一直卡在這邊...
• 如因商譽減損導致淨值降低，ROE增加，反而讓淑貴價增加，這樣好像怪怪的...
• 另查KHC確實因商譽減損(2018/12)導致淨值降低
• 一直卡在這邊...再懇請Mike大指導~

Curry

感謝Mike大 指導～
剛剛試算幾個不同商譽減損的狀況，
發現當商譽減損越多淑貴價會較高，但增加幅度不大，
應該能印證Mike大 講的淑貴價不變
但市場上遇到商譽減損通常會大跌，小弟以為是因為舉債併購但卻未發揮預期綜效
但換個角度想，對於不會變的公司，商譽減損導致大跌其實是個很好的進場機會！

Curry

• Edgewell Personal Care – The razor and personal-care products maker beat estimates by 16 cents a share, with adjusted quarterly profit of $1.11 per share. Revenue fell short of Street forecasts, however. The company also announced that after considering strategic alternatives, it has decided to retain its feminine care products unit, and said it still sees completing its acquisition of razor maker Harry’s no later than the first quarter of 2020.
• https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-allergan-dean-foods-energizer-shake-shack-more.html

Curry

EPC昨天大漲27.53%...但小弟仍未解套(07/31/2018買在$53.42)