ted_17 於 2020年11月20日 上午9:50 寫道：
Dear Mike,
正在研究這個討論串時看到這篇多出英文的論述，
想到你的目標向國際推廣巴班選股法，一時手癢沒有忍住，開始針對英文做一些修改。
如有冒犯請見諒。
這兩天推敲字眼、把一些中式描述調整了。
也為了文章通順增加一些額外的句子，還有把好幾處句型結構也改了。
請Mike看看如何。
祝好。
All the best,
Ted Tseng
非常感謝ted_17桑改寫英文
基金太貴，有人即鼓吹買收費較低廉的ETF指數型基金，
加上市場上多數人無法打敗大盤，
所以有人就選擇買ETF，績效跟大盤差不多就好。
Some advocate purchasing ETFs (exchange traded funds) that charge lower fees due to two reasons: 1) funds are too expensive, and 2) most people cannot beat the market. Therefore some investors choose to buy ETFs, the performance of which approaches that of the market.
上述有二句話是錯的
1. 買ETF的績效會接近大盤？
There are two wrong ideas above.
1.Will the performance of ETF investors approximate the market?
錯！大盤漲10%，綠角只有4%，綠角一個收費教ETF的醫生。
看怎麼個買法？
若是「股債均衡配置，每年初再來個再平衡」
績效注定是很難看的4%
No, the performance of ETF investors will not approximate the market. The fact is, the market rose by 10%, while by comparison the overall performance of Greenhorn, a Taiwanese doctor who sells ETF investment strategies, rose by only 4%.
The following counter argument can be offered: the performance of ETF investors can approximate the market, depending on one’s strategies.
However, if the strategy is to "weight stocks and bonds equally, and then to rebalance at the beginning of each year," which is a ubiquitously offered financial strategy, the performance is destined to be an ugly 4%.
2. 市場上多數人無法打敗大盤？
這句話值得商榷：
2. Can most investors not beat the market?
The idea that most investors cannot beat the market is arguable.
大家在跟指數比績效會掉到一個必然陷阱，
投資績效受二個因素影響，買賣點跟選股，
單比買賣點，先不計選股優劣，
當指數上漲時，你一定輸指數
當指數下跌時，你一定贏指數
何故？
Most will fall into a trap when comparing performance against the indexes.
Investment performance is affected by two factors, 1) buy and sell, and 2) stock selection.
For this argument, let’s limit the comparison to buying and selling, and we will consider stock selection later.
Consider the following two statements,
When the index rises, you will certainly lose to the index.
When the index falls, you will certainly win the index.
Why is that?
指數上漲，由1萬點漲到1萬3，
請問如何買賣才能超越大盤？
不可能的事，你一定輸指數。
The index gained 30% from 10,000 to 13,000,
how is it possible that one can maneuver to beat the market?
One will certainly lose when the index rises.
反之指數下跌，
只要主動減碼，你一定贏指數
這是三歲小孩皆懂的道理，
可是所有人都未察覺這是不公平的比較。
Conversely, when the index falls,
as long as you reduce your position, you can outperform the index.
This is a fact that even a toddler understands,
yet no one realizes this is an unfair comparison.
一般在比績效都是比上漲階段，很少比下跌段，
所以就以為多數人打不贏大盤，
這是一個天大誤會。
In short, most compare their performance against the market when it rises, but rarely do when it falls.
Therefore most people believe one cannot outperform the market.
This is a big misunderstanding.
論及選股對績效影響，
單靠選股要贏大盤的機率是1/2，
尤其短線，更不好抓，任何股票皆有出頭的一天，
不一定是價廉物美的股票漲得快。
Now, let’s consider the impact of stock selection on performance.
The odds of outperforming the market only by selecting a stock is 1/2, because either the stock outperforms, or not; especially in the short term, this is not an easy feat.
Every dog has its day, and cheap and fine stocks may not outperform the market.
買賣點已經輸了，選股又僅1/2機會贏，
主動投資打敗大盤的機率僅25%，
不是輸在技不如人，而是一場不公平的比較。
The odds to outperform the market via buying and selling is minimal, while via stock selection is 50%. Together, the probability of active investment beating the market is only 25%, not because of a lack of skill or talent, but of an unfair comparison.
如何才能公平比較績效？
第一，不是比一段指數上漲期間，如1萬點到1萬3，
而是比一段有漲有跌的期間，如2020年初到年底
第二，至少比3年才能讓選股優勢充分顯現
第三，不要單拿一支ETF跟整戶比績效，
綠角拿其中一支ETF出來比績效也不會只有4%，
一個人不可能這輩子只買一支ETF，而且一開始全押了就不理。
One may now beg the question, how does one compare performances fairly?
First, the time frame considered for comparison is not only the period when the index rises, for example from 10,000 to 13,000, but rather a period of time regardless of ups and downs, such as from January 1st 2020 until December 31st, 2020.
Second, to fully realize the advantages of active stock selection, at least three years of comparison is required.
Third, it is unfair to compare the performance of one single ETF with an entire investment account.
The performance of one ETF in Greenhorn’s account will not only be 4%.
It is unthinkable that a person would buy only one single ETF in their life, with their entire account all at once and then leave it.
選股優勢要時間夠長才能凸顯，
1965-2016年，波克夏漲了2萬倍，SnP500只漲127倍，
天差地遠！
有人說他只活在短線，只要短期快速致富的方法。
不對，到老了每個人都活到長線，
就要面對2萬倍跟127倍的差別。
I argue that the advantages of active stock selection can only be appreciated in the long run.
From 1965 to 2016, Berkshire Hathaway grew 20,000 times, while SnP500 only rose by 127 times. What a difference!
Some may argue that life is short, all one needs is a way to get rich quickly.
Wrong! When growing old, which account would one rather have, an account that grew 20,000 times or one that grew 127 times?
為何巴菲特方法完敗大盤和ETF？
因為指數和ETF成分股有一半是爛的貴的。
這些爛股若一支一支攤開來，投資人必不屑一顧，
可是包進ETF裡卻買單了，
蒼蠅不能吃，包進包子裡怎麼就覺得好吃了呢？
Why does the Buffett method outperforms the market and ETF unequivocally?
Because half of the index and ETF components are inferior and/or overvalued.
If these index and ETF component stocks were examined individually, investors surely will dismiss it. But why is it that when these stocks were packaged into an ETF, investors are willing to purchase them?
Flies are not edible, how could they become delicious when packaged in buns?
ETF踩到地雷股時還會拿不掉，
0050裡包含了宏達電，
股價從1,300元跌到40元不就是地雷股嗎？
拿不掉啊！
When stepping on landmine stocks, ETFs cannot get rid of them.
HTC is included in 0050, its stock price was falling from NT$1,300 to NT$40 like a landmine stock, and you can't even reduce its position to cut losses!
投資最好的方法是自己去組一個ETF，
選股很簡單，上完這堂課每個人都會挑股，
自己挑最好的公司，便宜時買，抱到貴才賣，
這樣績效會最好，明星高中考上台大的比例最高。
我的二本書「魔法書」和「神功」
後面附的入圍名單都遠遠打敗大盤好幾倍，
即最好證明。
我的二本書分別是2004年和2008年出的書，
指數約5,000，至今台股指數1萬點，
把股息加回去，指數約漲了1.5倍，
可是書後的入圍名單大統益、中碳、台塑、
和泰車、台積電、豐泰、巨大、美利達、
裕融、茂順，檔檔都大漲好幾倍。
The best way to invest is to form an ETF by oneself.
Picking stocks is very simple. After my class, everyone will be able to select quality stocks.
Pick the best company, buy when it’s cheap, and sell when it’s expensive.
This way the performance will be the best.
Students from top ranking high schools have higher chances to get admitted to the Ivy Leagues.
In both my books, "Magic Book" and "Magic Skills," one can find a shortlist of stocks of my choosing appended, all of which outperformed the market significantly thus far. I believe this is the best evidence I can offer.
My books and the lists were published in 2004 and 2008, when the Taiwan index was about 5,000. So far, it has reached 10,000 points.
Adding dividends back, the index rose by about 1.5 times.
The appended shortlists, which I personally compiled, included stocks such as TTET Union, China Steel Chemical, Formosa Plastics, Hotai Motor, TSMC, Feng Tay, Giant, Merida, Yulon Finance and Nak Sealing Technologies. All these companies more than doubled their values a few times.
無法直接挑選個股，才勉強去買ETF，
例如看好越南股市卻無法直接選股，
才退而求其次去買越南ETF。
The only reason for one to purchase ETFs, is that when one is unable to buy individual stocks directly. For example, we are optimistic about the Vietnamese stock market but for whatever reason cannot directly buy stocks ourselves, then we invest in a Vietnamese ETF.
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