講稿 20/21 股債不是蹺蹺板
Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw
股票高點賣掉之後，請擺現金或存定存，
不要再做任何投資。
有人說「擺現金，沒什麼收益啊？」
當萬物皆貴時，
股票報酬率可能為-20%，債券-15%，房地產-10%，...
現金報酬率 0 將是最高。
After you sold stocks at a high price, please deposit it in cash or deposit.
Don't make any more investments.
Someone said: "Save cash, no gain ?"
When everything is expensive, return on stocks may be -20%, bonds are -15%, real estate is -10%,...
0% return for cash will be the highest.
尤其別被拐去買什麼債券型基金，
投信和理專總會說「股債是蹺蹺板，資產要均配置」，
這完全錯誤，股債非蹺蹺板，而是同方向漲跌。
Especially don’t be lured to buy a bond fund.
Fund companies and bank’s advisors said, "Stocks and bonds are seesaws, and all assets must be allocated."
This is completely wrong. Stocks and bonds are not on a seesaw, but fluctuate in the same direction.
請看第一張圖：高收益債ETF(JNK)與道瓊走勢密切相關
股市高檔賣掉轉去買高收益債，這樣等於沒減碼。
Please check the first picture: High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is closely related to Dow Jones trends.
You sell stocks at a high price and then switch to high-yield bonds, which is equivalent to not reducing your position.
[attach]493[/attach]
高收益債JNK是什麼的縮寫？
Junk，垃圾債，
即基本面較差公司發行的公司債。
我對投信業最不能諒解的，
居然把垃圾債券美其名為高收益債券，
這等於把麥可說成金城武。
What is the abbreviation of high yield bond JNK ?
Junk, garbage debt.
In other words, corporate bonds issued by companies with poor fundamentals.
I can’t forgive those fund companies that call junk bonds as high-yield bonds.
This is equivalent to saying that Michael is Takeshi Kaneshiro.
有人說他不是買高收益債，而是政府公債，不會跌，
公債怎麼不會跌，碰到國家危機照樣會跌。
圖二美國10年公債ETF(BIV)與道瓊走勢圖 ，
2008年次貸危機道瓊大跌，10年公債也跟著跌。
拉丁美洲、希臘發生債信危機時政府公債都跌翻掉。
Some people say that he is not buying high-yield bonds, but government bonds, which will not fall.
How can public debt not fall, it will fall even in the face of a national crisis.
Figure 2 U.S. 10-year public debt ETF (BIV) and Dow Jones trend chart.
In 2008, Dow Jones fell sharply in subprime mortgage crisis, and 10-year bond also fell.
When debt crisis occurred in Latin America and Greece, government bonds fell terriblly.
[attach]494[/attach]
同學拿第三張圖20年公債ETF(TILT)與道瓊走勢圖來反駁，
說次貸危機時美國20年公債和股市就是蹺蹺板，
股市大跌時20年公債反而上揚，問我如何解釋？
A student took the third chart 20-year Treasury Treasury ETF (TILT) and Dow Jones chart to refute.
When subprime mortgage crisis occurred, US 20-year public debt and stock market were seesaws.
When stock market fell sharply, 20-year bond went up. How can I explain it ?
[attach]495[/attach]
這很簡單，以上3張圖顯示資金撤退的先後順序。
股市和垃圾債最不穩定，一有風吹草動最先被撒出，
10年公債次之，
最後則為20年公債。
Very easy, the 3 pictures above show capital withdrawal sequence.
Stock market and junk debt are the most volatile, being the first to withdraw when there is turbulence.
Next ten-year bond.
The last is 20 years of public debt.
20年公債反而漲的原因，
2008年次貸危機僅止於金融業而已，
美國政府債信仍然無虞，才能印鈔票救市。
Reason for rise in 20-year public debt is 2008 subprime mortgage crisis only stopped in financial industry.
Debt of US government is still intact and can be used to print money to rescue the market.
若惡化到如希臘債信危機一般，政府也破產了，
則20年公債也將難保，甚至美金也沒人要。
If the situation worsens to the extent of Greek debt crisis, government will also go bankrupt.
Then 20-year public debt will be difficult to guarantee, and no one will even want dollars.
投信所說的「股債是蹺蹺板，資產要均衡配置」
這兩句根本自相矛盾。
若股債真是蹺蹺板，一個漲一個跌，
又均衡配置各押5成，
合起來績效為零，
扣掉管理費，總績效將是-3%，
這樣何必費工理財，不如存定存 !
According to fund companies, "stocks and bonds are seesaws, and assets must be allocated in a balanced way."
These two sentences are contradictory.
If stocks and bonds are really seesaws, one goes up and one goes down,
they also bet 50% each in a balanced configuration,
combined performance is zero.
After deducting management fee, total performance will be -3%.
So why bother to manage money, it is better to save !
[attach]496[/attach]
投信要投資人股票高點賣掉之後轉去買債券唯一的原因是
不願意資金被贖回去而抽不到管理費。
The only reason fund companies require investors to sell stock funds at a high price and then switch to buying bonds is that redemption will lose management fees.
[attach]497[/attach]
投信永遠看多，只知一味看多算哪門子專家？
找一條狗來問，也會「旺！旺！旺！」
Fund companies are always bullish. If you are always bullish, then you are not eligible to be an expert.
If you ask a dog, it is also barking "Boom ! Boom ! Boom !"
台大企管系畢業的同學告訴我，
該校財務管理系名教授也是教「股債是蹺蹺板」，
差點讓我從椅子上跌下來。
請問李教授，股債都是公司發行的籌資工具，
差別在於一個不用還本，一個要還，
公司發生什麼事會讓一個漲，另一個跌？
A student who graduated from Department of Business Administration of National Taiwan University told me,
a famous professor of financial management department of the school also teaches that "equity and debt is a seesaw."
That almost made me fall off the chair.
Professor Li, stocks and bonds are all financing tools issued by companies.
The difference is that one does not need to repay principal, the other has to be repaid.
What happens to the company will make one rise and the other fall ?
問同學為何只會在討論區踢館，
而不敢向教授挑戰，
同學神回「因為成績是教授打的！」
I asked students why they only challenged me in discussion forums, dare not ask the professor.
The student replied, "Because grades are made by the professor !"
|
新浪微博
QQ空间
人人网
腾讯微博
Facebook
Google+
Plurk
Twitter
Line
