基金太貴，有人即鼓吹買收費較低廉的ETF指數型基金，
加上市場上多數人無法打敗大盤，
所以有人就選擇買ETF，績效跟大盤差不多就好。
Funds are too expensive, and some people advocate buying ETFs, exchange traded funds, that charge lower fees.
In addition, most people in the market cannot beat the market,
so some investors choose to buy ETFs, whose performance approach that of the market.
上述有二句話是錯的
1. 買ETF的績效會接近大盤？
Two sentences above are wrong.
1. Performance of ETF investors will approach the market?
錯！大盤漲10%，綠角只有4%，綠角一個收費教ETF的醫生。
看怎麼個買法？
若是「股債均衡配置，每年初再來個再平衡」
績效注定是很難看的4%
Wrong! The market rose by 10%, and Greenhone was only 4%. Greenhone is a doctor who charges for teaching ETF in Taiwan.
It depend on how to buy?
If the strategy is "Equal weight of stocks and bonds and rebalance at the beginning of each year", the performance is destined to be ugly 4%.
2. 市場上多數人無法打敗大盤？
這句話值得商榷：
2. Most investors cannot beat the market?
This sentence is arguable:
大家在跟指數比績效會掉到一個必然陷阱，
投資績效受二個因素影響，買賣點跟選股，
單比買賣點，先不計選股優劣，
當指數上漲時，你一定輸指數
當指數下跌時，你一定贏指數
何故？
Everyone will fall into a trap when comparing performance with the index.
Investment performance is affected by two factors, buy and sell and stock selection.
Let’s just compare the buy and sell, and ignore stock selection first.
When the index rises, you will certainly lose to the index.
When the index falls, you will certainly win the index.
Why?
指數上漲，由1萬點漲到1萬3，
請問如何買賣才能超越大盤？
不可能的事，你一定輸指數。
The index rose from 10,000 to 13,000,
how can you buy and sell to beat the market?
Impossible, you will certainly lose to the index.
反之指數下跌，
只要主動減碼，你一定贏指數
這是三歲小孩皆懂的道理，
可是所有人都未察覺這是不公平的比較。
Conversely, the index fell,
as long as you reduce your position, you can win the index.
This is a fact that even three-year-olds know,
but no one realizes that this is an unfair comparison.
一般在比績效都是比上漲階段，很少比下跌段，
所以就以為多數人打不贏大盤，
這是一個天大誤會。
Normally, we compare the performance during stock rise, but rarely when the stock falls,
so they think most people cannot win the market.
This is a big misunderstanding.
再論選股對績效影響，
單靠選股要贏大盤的機率是1/2，
尤其短線，更不好抓，任何股票皆有出頭的一天，
不一定是價廉物美的股票漲得快。
Regarding the impact of stock selection on performance,
the probability of winning the market only by selecting stocks is 1/2.
Especially in the short term, this is not an easy choice.
Every dog has its day.
Cheap and fine stocks may not outperform the market.
買賣點輸了一半，選股又僅1/2機會贏，
主動投資打敗大盤的機率僅25%，
不是輸在技不如人，而是一場不公平的比較。
The buy and sell lost half, and stock picks only have a 1/2 chance to win,
the probability of active investment beating the market is only 25%.
Not because of low skills, but an unfair comparison.
如何才能公平比較績效？
第一，不是比一段指數上漲期間，如1萬點到1萬3，
而是比一段有漲有跌的期間，如2020年初到年底
第二，至少比3年才能讓選股優勢充分顯現
第三，不要單拿一支ETF跟整戶比績效，
綠角拿其中一支ETF出來比績效也不會只有4%，
一個人不可能這輩子只買一支ETF，而且一開始全押了就不理。
How to compare performance fairly?
First, the time frame for comparison is not the period when the index rises like from 10,000 to 13,000, but a period of ups and downs, such as from the beginning of 2020 to the end of the year.
Second, to fully realize the advantages of stock picking, at least three years of comparison are required.
Third, don't just compare the performance of one ETF with the entire account.
The performance of an ETF in Greenhone will not only be 4%.
It is impossible for a person to buy only one ETF in his life, all-in at first and leave it.
選股優勢要時間夠長才能凸顯，
1965-2016年，波克夏漲了2萬倍，SnP500只漲127倍，
天差地遠！
有人說他只活在短線，只要短期快速致富的方法。
不對，到老了每個人都活到長線，
就要面對2萬倍跟127倍的差別。
Stock picking will prevail in the long run.
From 1965 to 2016, Berkshire Hathaway increased by 20,000 times, while SnP500 only rose by 127 times.
A vast difference !
Some people say that he is only a short-term life, all he needs is a way to get rich quickly.
Wrong! When getting old, everyone lives to long term and will face the big difference between 20,000 and 127 times.
為何巴菲特方法完敗大盤和ETF？
因為指數和ETF成分股有一半是爛的貴的。
這些爛股若一支一支攤開來，投資人必不屑一顧，
可是包進ETF裡卻買單了，
蒼蠅不能吃，包進包子裡怎麼就覺得好吃了呢？
Why does Buffett method overwhelm the market and ETF?
Because half of the index and ETF constituents are inferior and expensive.
If these stocks spread out one by one, investors will dismiss it.
But when included in an ETF, they are paid.
Flies are not edible, why do they become delicious when packaged in buns?
ETF踩到地雷股時還會拿不掉，
0050裡包含了宏達電，
股價從1,300元跌到40元不就是地雷股嗎？
拿不掉啊！
When stepping on landmine stocks, ETFs cannot get rid of them.
HTC is included in 0050,
its stock price was falling from NT$1,300 to NT$40 like a landmine stock, and you can't take it away!
投資最好的方法是自己去組一個ETF，
選股很簡單，上完這堂課每個人都會挑股，
自己挑最好的公司，便宜時買，抱到貴才賣，
這樣績效會最好，明星高中考上台大的比例最高。
我的二本書「魔法書」和「神功」
後面附的入圍名單都遠遠打敗大盤好幾倍，
即最好證明。
我的二本書分別是2004年和2008年出的書，
指數約5,000，至今台股指數1萬點，
把股息加回去，指數約漲了1.5倍，
可是書後的入圍名單大統益、中碳、台塑、
和泰車、台積電、豐泰、巨大、美利達、
裕融、茂順，檔檔都大漲好幾倍。
The best way to invest is to form an ETF by yourself.
Picking stocks is very simple. After this class, everyone will pick stocks.
Pick the best company, buy when it’s cheap, and sell when it’s expensive.
This way the performance will be the best.
Star high schools have higher chances of getting admitted to NTU.
My two books "Magic Book" and "Magic Skills"
The shortlists attached behind the book have beaten the market several times by far.
That is best to prove.
My two books were published in 2004 and 2008, when the Taiwan index was about 5,000. So far, it has reached 10,000 points.
Adding dividends back, the index rose by about 1.5 times.
However, the shortlists behind the book TTET Union, China Steel Chemical, Formosa Plastics, Hotai Motor, TSMC, Feng Tay, Giant, Merida, Yulon Finance and Nak Sealing Technologies all rose several times.
無法直接挑選個股，才勉強去買ETF，
例如看好越南股市卻無法直接選股，
才退而求其次去買越南ETF。
Unable to buy individual stocks directly, we instead bought ETFs.
For example, we are optimistic about the Vietnamese stock market but cannot directly buy stocks.
Then we invest a Vietnamese ETF.
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